Unilateral rescue downward trend can not change the price

 Unilateral rescue downward trend can not change the price
Mr Cao
2007 tightening of credit since, in addition to the basic business environment deteriorated, to the known The economic boom has not been dropped. in the first half, China has 67,000 small and medium scale industrial enterprises closed down, real estate has changed substantially since 2004, continued to rise in the situation, into the volume and price or the From the October 2007 stock market's 6124 peak, the minimum dropped to 18 September 2008 to 1802 points, down by more than 70%; important goal of government regulation as the consumer price index in July, August for two consecutive months down, it seems that macro-control to achieve the intended goals. face from the industry, real estate, stocks and other aspects of voice, began to promote Central to maintain macroeconomic stability, to maintain stability in financial markets and the securities market, launched on the stock market, including monetary policy series of bailout measures, including: Sept. 15, the central bank cut benchmark lending rate and the introduction of some commercial banks deposit reserve ratio of the rescue policy, although subject to Lehman's global stock market decline led to influence, Shanghai, September 16 that plunged 4.47%, banks fell 8.78% lead, Bank of Beijing, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, China Merchants Bank, ICBC, Construction Bank, have hit bottom; September 18 re-launch of our government, including the unilateral imposition of stamp duty Huijin market, the central SASAC to encourage good corporate buybacks heavy mix of policies, promote stock market has never been a comprehensive history of the close limit.
as an economic barometer of the stock market has always been highly exaggerated in the color of ups and downs , so that various participants have gripped even the most spectators. For businesses, stock issuance and listing of circulation as the original shareholders of plundering the wealth of public shareholders, an important way to get rich quickly, but the real results of operations through the securities, real estate investment and financial package to cover capital operation far more important than product operations, special dividend to shareholders in cash dividends, the company can not cross the bottom line decision-making; for public shareholders, even though part of its investment in the public offering had been the original shareholders (or is a bleak . the stock market crash, stock market investors since 2007, most at a loss, and some book loss rate exceeded 90%.
surface, the stock market crash is a process of evaporation of wealth in society, but the stock value The reason can be evaporated, a fundamental symbol of corporate assets or as stock price is too high, due to a large amount of illusory wealth. the real social wealth, and stock market prices will not change with the ups and downs, but it can cause social wealth in different countries, companies, individuals re-configuration. When a unit of budget constraints, due to slumping share prices held, then there strand breaks caused by insolvency or financial bankruptcy, liquidation, then the virtual stock market the destruction of the economic role of the real economy, on the most vividly reflected in the.
If the stock market only a small number of enterprises to solve the financing problem, but the wealth effect caused by excessive speculation has attracted a large proportion of society savings deposits, then the market must there is a problem. simple bailout policies of listed companies may not save more than ten times the size of the real economy is going to save shrinking market value of public shareholders cruel, but can only save those who do anything they want in the stock market making, they will wake up in a the stock market, restart the game to bring them to plunder the wealth and happiness. So, in order to rescue the market index benchmark policy, small and medium investors will eventually push more cold abyss.
for the Chinese stock market and the distinctive words, large-scale direct financing has not led to more companies listed. So far, 1,500 listed companies account for only a smaller share of China's real economy. from the Perspective of the driving economic growth, non-listed companies, especially SMEs, is the sustained and healthy development of China's economy constitutes the cornerstone. Now the key question is: if we change the tone of monetary policy tightening, the stock market bear market situation can change and form the trend turned up? in the inflation situation has become worse and the bear market a foregone conclusion, the change in tone from the tight monetary policy can only enhance the overall economic potential financial risks that already exist, and there is no trend in the stock market may change.
now people are most worried about the fundamentals of the stock market performance of listed companies will mm worsening, which constitute the pattern of China's stock market bear market, the fundamental reason. This also indicates a general concern, to rely on our long-term export-oriented industrialization, urbanization, economic development model, has come to tackle the backlog level. not by a large adjusted to achieve economic transformation and upgrading, economic revival will be delayed indefinitely. This meant the majority of conditions faced by public investors, will be a long-term, continuing fall of the great bear market of deep sites.
rescue: temporary or root
published in the September 24, 2008 Who?
persistent tightening of credit, coupled with the deterioration of the basic environment of business, to known as 67,000 small and medium scale industrial enterprises closed down, real estate has changed substantially since 2004, continued to rise in the situation, into the volume and price or the to September 18, 2008 of 1802 points, down by more than 70%; important goal of government regulation as the Consumer Price Index in the July, August dropped for two consecutive months, it seems that macro-control to achieve the target.
face from the industry, real estate, the stock market and other aspects of voice, began to advocate maintaining the central macroeconomic stability, to maintain stability in financial markets and securities markets, including stock market embarked on a series of monetary policy, including measures to rescue the market: 9 January 15, the central bank cut benchmark lending rates and introduction of some commercial banks deposit reserve ratio bailout policies, but by the Lehman bankruptcy caused the fall in global stock markets, September 16 stock index plunged 4.47%, banking stocks tumbled to take the lead 8.78%, Bank of Beijing, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, China Merchants Bank, ICBC, Construction Bank, have hit bottom; September 18 re-launch of our government, including the unilateral imposition of stamp duty Huijin market, the SASAC encouraged to buy back shares of central enterprises The combination of heavy good policy to drive the stock market to the history of the overall limit has never been closed.
as an economic barometer of the stock market has always been highly exaggerated in the color of the ups and downs, so that even the most diverse participants spectators are getting scared. For businesses, stock issuance and listing some of the original shareholders in circulation as plunder the wealth of public shareholders, an important way to riches, while the real business performance through the securities, real estate investment and financial package to cover, capital operation far more important than product operations, special dividend to shareholders in cash dividends is very mean; for public shareholders, even though part of its investment in the public offering had been the original shareholders (or does not recognize the value of investments and dividends from listed companies, their stocks for income and where the main source of fun. In many funds, listed companies, the public shareholders, the battle for the interests of Rat cohabitation among public shareholders eventually become the largest family of loss . the stock market crash, stock market investors since 2007, most at a loss, and some book loss rate exceeded 90%.
surface, the stock market crash is a process of evaporation of wealth in society, but the stock value The reason can be evaporated, a fundamental symbol of corporate assets or as stock price is too high, due to a large amount of illusory wealth. the real social wealth, and stock market prices will not change with the ups and downs, but it can cause social wealth in different countries, companies, individuals re-configuration. When a unit of budget constraints, due to slumping share prices held, then there strand breaks caused by insolvency or financial bankruptcy, liquidation, then the virtual stock market the destruction of the economic role of the real economy, on the most vividly reflected in the.
If the stock market only a small number of enterprises to solve the financing problem, and the wealth effect caused by excessive speculation has attracted a large proportion of society savings deposits, then the market must there is a problem. simple bailout policies of listed companies may not save more than ten times the size of the real economy is going to save shrinking market value of public shareholders cruel, but can only save those who do anything they want in the stock market making, they will wake up in a the stock market, restart the looting game to bring them wealth and happiness.
monetary policy should focus on the real economy
thanks to the existence of the stock market, monetary policy not only directly on the real economy, but also through stock regulation directly or indirectly affect the real economy. Therefore, for the stock market channel of monetary policy conduction and its effect can not be ignored.
key question now is: if we change the tone of monetary policy tightening, the stock market can change the bear market situation, the trend to form up again?
I believe that the deterioration in the inflation and the bear market is a foregone conclusion, the change in tone from the tight monetary policy, there can only deepen the overall economy has the potential financial risk, and not likely to change Long-term trends in the stock market.
the moment people are most worried about the fundamentals of the stock market performance of listed companies mm will tend to deteriorate, which constitute the pattern of China's stock market bear market, the fundamental reason. This also indicates a general concern, our long-term rely on export-oriented industrialization and urbanization model of economic development, has reached a point where diehard, the adjustment must be large to achieve economic transformation and upgrading, it may lead to economic revival.
from promoting China's economic growth perspective, At present the main engine exports, investment, automotive consumption hot spots have emerged in the three signs of stalling. weak export demand is a major problem encountered .2007 share of China's exports of goods GDP (expenditure approach) the proportion of the total as high as 35.7%. Since 2002 years, China's exports of goods each year to more than 20% of the rate of growth. Excluding price factors, the export sector may be a year directly to China's GDP growth contributed almost 4 percentage points. It is clear that export growth slowdown or even decline, overall economic growth will be significantly slow down.
investment growth also began to have problems the first half of .2008 of total fixed asset investment 6,840,200,000,000 yuan, an increase of 26.3% over the year earlier, accelerating by 0.4 percentage points; Excluding the prices of fixed-asset investment rose 10% , the actual fixed assets investment up 14.8%, compared to drop significantly over the past few years. As a leading real estate development and investment growth, investment, due to falling home prices and credit tightening, the majority of weak sales of the real estate business into a difficult position and cash flow, investment decline has become an indisputable fact. subject to the impact of falling house prices, the depth dependence of local government land sales infrastructure investment, have begun to face the problem of insufficient funding.
the first half of total retail sales of social consumer goods 5.1043 trillion yuan, up 21.4% over the same period of 2007, 6.0 percentage points, net 7.5% of retail prices, the first half of the total retail sales of social consumption, the actual growth rate was 12.9%, faster than GDP growth rate 2.5 percentage points. On the surface, China's macro consumer is being restored. However, if taking into account government consumption in 2007, the proportion of final consumption expenditure of up to 28%, and showed an upward trend in consumer consumption, especially rural residents Final consumption expenditure showed a sharp decline in the proportion, expanding domestic demand, especially the expansion of domestic consumption, is still a daunting task.
the long term, China's stock market back to bull market, you need to create sustainable economic development in China, based on. monetary policy changes only based on the fundamentals of our economy through fundamental changes in the healthy development of the stock market basis; simply Although you can boost short-term rescue rise, but help to improve the long-term trend of stock prices, they may deepening of the bubble economy caused by the transfer of social wealth, inflation, and the stock market fell more substantial lack of demand caused by the economic crisis situation, thereby adversely affecting the economic restructuring and economic revitalization of an important opportunity. (Institute of Industrial Economics of Chinese Academy of Social Investment and Market Research , director, researcher)