As the morning sun Le Dover impression in the mind, like Monet, my heart Xiaokai, was fixed in the 1986 rainy season, the Holiday Inn near the campus of Harvard University's hall, he stood there, dressed simple, humble attitude, for those of us who come from afar to participate in the first gathering of CES students luggage.
Professor Zhang Wuchang years ago, private comments, Oscar is an is one of extraordinary energy, it seems tireless. This, to me this not interrupted.
Oscar is to me, is a whole generation of Chinese people in the minds of hundreds of millions of stars in the temper out of the silence of a few the baptism of the times, almost without exception, also has the following two tendencies: (1) the tendency of critical thinking, (2) concern about the tendency of the fundamental problem of local society. When these two tendencies belong to different features of the mind, the easy speculated that they can shape the mind are called Lu Xun's get this view: when he experienced a At the same time with the above two tendencies. a social upheaval, is expensive in such a way, gave birth to their own grave-diggers. Oscar on behalf of the group of intellectuals which, in accordance with the hou in the After the stage of the backbone of China's social change movement, they used characteristics, Oscar's temperament to be more significant in the shaping of his personal history. He's simple and modest in nature, surprisingly, has never prevented him bluntly expressed his opinion of those against the trend. such a rare temperament, the Oscar on behalf of the group with the above characteristics from the intellectual community in unequivocally clear out. and the Reform of the last century man of 80 years compared with more attention to maintaining the edge of his identity, but also willing to take the critical attitude of mainstream thinking , whether at home or abroad. He worked hard to create a is that Oscar would prefer his burst of vitality that the idea put into the framework of mathematical forms of analysis, and failed to thoroughly and break formalism of mainstream economics, Keynes failed to remember a letter to the views of Harold mm once he is converted to mathematical concepts, concepts in the thinking will die.
However, Oscar has faith. I remember it was 2001, I once again the strength of his faith touched. that time, I read in his home a few crucial to his theory of its own with the Oscar's When it came out outside of, the performance of religious acts. religious practices does not necessarily mean inner belief, but it also suppressed in the rules other than the inherent belief. But when faith is purely internal, when it often becomes instruct the dark unknown its intention to go beyond this side has been expressed in a strong up and play beyond the ordinary people of energy and this energy distribution to all aspects of the living world, whether it is academic or political, whether it is great or trivial.
Keer Kai Guo Seoul said: You How faith, you how to live. Oscar is almost close to the end of the journey of life, the only access to the external form of faith, he absorbed the sinking, burst out from the social fault in the spirit of the era of the impulse head, really be peace of mind by his shrouded attributed to silence.
attributed to silence it! thought had not spread to people who do not think.
(This article was published in July 2004, found this morning in the CENET, transcription here.)
The following is quoted at 2008-9-5 19:19:00 well_done statement:
thank Wang Dingding teacher recommendations, to the meter in my school after the teacher borrowed a plum this book. reading this book really inspired me. This book is from the daily life of uncertainty and we ignore the , with a unique perspective and principle of probability reasoning and prediction of socio-economic phenomenon, and ; students said, attitude towards the knowledge we have learned, the real existence of Wang Dingding teacher can recommend more and better books, to help our breakthrough thinking, broaden their horizons and enrich their knowledge.
thanks had a nearly 5 thousand words in the article comments that book, I hope to attract the attention of scholars of domestic and reading. because China is experiencing is not statistically normal distribution of the events described, and the Chinese cultural tradition is not normal can be characterized, and it happens, this book is to provide an anti-Chinese readers statistical point of view of thinking. At the same time, this work if you think deeply, you will come to favor your secondary and primary education has long been the (Details Source Reference:
China to fight immune
Zhou Qi Ren / text Published :2008-09-12
course of inflation and economic contraction of the global trends, but it does not mean that each country can only passive follow, nothing
present, the parties to the decline in China's economic growth rate concerns, with the global economy are directly related to changes in the economy. This is not difficult to understand, because today China's economy is highly export-oriented, import and export value of over 60% of GDP. Therefore, the global economy changes, will be very sensitive to China's economic performance reflected up. If the Chinese in the past to seize the strategic opportunities of globalization to promote full use of global capital, technology and market demand for the development of its own, then, when the global economic boom when the major turning point, the Chinese economy will have to face the challenges of adjustment and transition.
changes in global economic boom, the first American. As a service-oriented developed economies, the U.S. real estate, finance to be a big problem faced unprecedented crises. Many people view the current U.S. economic crisis, yet there is no to several years. Of course, much room for the U.S. economy to adjust, such as the weak dollar, its exports to begin to rise, the second quarter of this year there are 1.5% of U.S. GDP growth, that is, by exports. to remove the contribution of exports, U.S. economic growth is negative. Europe and Japan go on domestic consumption, exports did not come up much, so, economic growth began to appear negative. This is the impact on the global market, of course, is not small, highly dependent on exports such as China's economy, the impact more.
in the end how much longer, America and Japan's economy will slow turn back? In my opinion, no one can fully know. Japan's economic downturn has many years of stagnation, is not still not work? We certainly hope that the United States European Buzhi Yu repeat the trajectory of the Japanese economy can be relatively quickly out of the current shadow. However, the difficulties of the big, developed difficulties have developed. may be transferred back to not so fast.
from the longer-term history, the 60s of last century the United States playing the high inflation and low growth, CPI 13% -14% have had a record high. In order to curb inflation, they made a hero out of the Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker (Paul Volcker), big hands squeeze the supply of base money, the federal benchmark interest rate to rise to 19.5%, commercial bank lending rate to over 21%, the unemployment rate 30 years catching up with the Great Depression! the big bend, a Shui is more than a decade, to the Reagan era, then, have fundamentally changed this century. the United States since the mighty. However, after 2002 into the Iraq war, the same is rising fiscal deficit, weak dollar; chain reaction coupled with the subprime crisis, to cope with recession, the Fed has repeatedly cut interest rates. so-called global era of high inflation , say in the end, the first dollar is the inevitable result of too much too freely. The question is: U.S. economic trends, will not like the problem, others turn a blind eye, but the Chinese can not. because since the mid 90s of last century, the Chinese economy very open. This is a remarkable achievement, the Chinese economy over the years contributed significantly to the rapid growth. The problem is the general trend of the global economy there is a change, a high degree of export-oriented China, Europe and America first encountered the global market downside risks to Japan's economic rise, the first to be affected. This is a challenge for the future will continue.
Therefore, China needs to prepare both hands, both hope that the U.S. economy and dollar, the European expansion of the Japanese market, the global economic expansion, but also to prepare for dollar is not strong, America and Japan and even economic contraction of the global economy. Globalization is the global market-based, and as long as is market- based economy, can not only linear growth, there will always be fluctuations up and down. downside risks to the global knowledge economy is not enough, lack of preparation, may be caught in the global passive.
end, we must clearly ask a question: In the United States and Japan downward economic boom period, the Chinese can not maintain stable and rapid economic growth? this unavoidable. because there is a point of view, it seems that inflation Ye Hao, economic contraction both mean Therefore, there is no way the Chinese themselves, only gone up, follow the crowd. I personally do not agree with this view. of course inflation and economic contraction of the global trends, but it does not mean that each country can only passively follow, doing nothing. to inflation, for example, the rise of global inflation is a fact, the international impact of high oil prices, high food prices is also true, but in the same global environment, national inflation rate from a few million percent in Zimbabwe to Japan two percent of the sky ground great difference, which shows that each country can take the initiative or policy options, under the influence of global trends in the difference, while avoiding disadvantages.
for immune conditions in China. We need not repeat that are the envy of the world platitudes mm China has huge domestic potential. large abacus is not difficult to fight: as long as the expansion of domestic demand, greater, over the years to service foreign demand huge manufacturing capacity, as long as part of the internal shift, the Chinese economy may not only sustained high growth, and perhaps the global economy, > The author is a professor of Peking University's China Center for Economic Research, the part by the Center for Economic Research of Peking University (located in North Long Run Park) of the feed
Ye Hang Professor: August statistics revealed significant risk of China's economy
September 10, National Bureau of Statistics announced in August 2008 the principal of China's macroeconomic statistics. in which the consumer price index (CPI) rose 4.9%, the growth rate higher than July's 6.3% and 7.9% of the first half of a more significant drop. market participants agreed that it reflects our government macroeconomic regulation this year, made substantial progress and expected to come on this stage, a tight monetary policy is expected to be eased. Some people even that China's economy may be the most difficult time has passed. In view of this data, to read the statistics about August, we can easily find, behind the veneer of the seemingly optimistic, in fact, implies the future development of China's macroeconomic constraints serious crisis mm
First, from the CPI classification of indicators, rose higher than in July (6.3%) are food prices (10.3%), (where meat and poultry prices rose 8.0%, food prices rose 8.0%, oil prices rose 22.7 percent, aquatic products rose 16.4%, fresh fruit prices rose 13%); alcohol prices (8.4%); family service and maintenance service prices (9.2%); vehicle fuel and spare parts prices (22.2%); water, electricity and fuel prices (8.2%); construction Housing and decoration material prices (9.1%). or more than or close to the August average (4.9%) are Chinese herbal medicines and proprietary Chinese medicines prices (4.9%); inter-city transportation prices (4.7%).
Comments: We see, CPI classification index of prices has not been effectively controlled pressure is precisely the basic livelihood of the people are involved in consumer goods! This trend not only undermines the living standards of ordinary people, and would severely hinder the future needs of domestic consumption to the national economy the pulling force. in the exports continued to slump against the backdrop of rising prices of basic consumer goods, will restrict the growth of domestic demand, which in turn to China's future economic growth of major risks.
second classification index from the CPI Look, rose less than in July and August the average price of main services (1.4%); tobacco prices (0.4%); health care prices (0.3%); rental prices (3.5%); and classification of indicators negative growth to price (price drop) project mainly transport prices (-0.8%); civic and service of durable consumer prices (-7.5%) and communication tools prices (-18.6%).
Comment: Since August Most of the increase in commodity prices are increasing, why the increase in the total price down but it? read this one we can understand, August CPI increase was the result of a certain degree of decline, mainly due to car phone (communication) and the significant downturn in the price of entertainment! And it is this structure of CPI, on the other hand revealed a more significant risks mm we know, the auto industry and the communications equipment industry is the rapid development in recent years The main driving force of economic growth in China, the two pillar industries of the recession and depression are signs would severely hinder China's economic growth potential. The significant downturn in the price of culture and entertainment business people will reveal the commercial exchanges is shrinking into that their confidence in the future and expectations are constantly becoming worse!
third, August statistics show that the producer price index (PPI) rose 10.1%, setting a new high of 10 years. raw materials, fuel, power purchase into the prices of 15.3%. sub-species to see: Oil prices rose 38.2%. refined oil, gasoline, diesel and kerosene prices rose 33.7%, 22.1% and 36.1%. Chemical Products, the polystyrene prices up rose 0.6%, up 40.8% butadiene rubber, polyester filament yarn declined by 1.5%. coal mining and washing prices rose 39.0%. which, coal prices rose 38.3%. ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry prices up rose 29.9%. which ordinary large rolled steel prices rose 38.2%, normal medium-sized steel products rose 45.5%, 33.5% up small steel, wire up 43.9%, 30.8% higher in the thick steel plate. nonferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry prices up decreased by 2.3%. Among them, aluminum was down 0.8%, copper down 1.4%, down 9.3% lead, zinc fell 29.4%. In addition, raw materials, fuel and power prices, fuel and power, Ferrous Metals, Nonferrous Metals classes and chemical raw materials purchasing prices were up 30.9% year on year, 26.6%, 0.7% and 9.2%.
Comments: PPI hit a new high, which means the fundamental pressure-driven CPI rise has not been effectively alleviated. but also in the PPI upward trend and the CPI rising trend away from the situation there, means that the production level of corporate profits will fall sharply. (on this market have already reached a consensus)
Taking these three, especially one twenty-two information revealed, my interpretation of the August national statistics and most observers had different explanations for this. from the CPI classification structure, which indicates that China's economy from the recession that began just this year opened off, the next two to three years we will face more severe difficulties and challenges!
Ma
of the dead m: Wang Dingding Source: last modified :2007-11-13 8:04:22 Click Start printing
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late autumn, Beijing, 1972, from 13 Sanlihe to peace in the bus, and a 52-year-old man with tunic concentrate silently reciting the . Mahon, vice commander, in the Fuchun arrangement, two years ago quietly transferred back to Beijing from Shanxi Niangziguan.
management has of course, potential free will to. History must be presented with a series of casual inevitability of it. hh Cut to twenty years ago, November 15, 1952, the Central People's Government Committee 19th meeting, decided that the newly established National Planning Commission, chaired by the Gao Gang, Zihui, Li Fuchun, Vice-Chairman Jia Takuo. The Committee Members include: Chen Yun, Peng, Lin Biao, Deng Xiaoping, Rao Shushi, Bo Yibo, Xi, Huang Kecheng, Liu Lan Tao, An Zhiwen, Ma, Xue Muqiao .16 months later, in March 1954, the Soviet Union in Mao Zedong Chinese Ambassador Eugene conversation politely tells: Central Committee, and the other is hidden and not now Center was destroyed. is that year, McMahon was banished seven administrative level, transferred to Beijing's vice president of a construction company.
That seven years after the earthquake, adversity Ma, to the tireless research and insights into the auspices of Deng Xiaoping's a deeper downturn.
join the revolution in the thirties and has repeatedly experienced the ups and downs of adversity and good times among the old members, McMahon showed the following two aspects of quality rare combination of right: (1) both students similar responses, it seems that some people do their homework for them, under questioning, he found a man sweeping the child's talents, allowing the burglary, went on to sponsor the new school he read Datong Railway. It is there, but two years , the poor children grow into a major movement of railway workers Tongpu one of the leaders. That year, he was 17 years old. The young Union Leader and Yan Xishan negotiations Blair. Yan Xishan both emotion and fear, then orders apprehend the young man surnamed Niu.
surname Ma cattle, an officer escorted from Shanxi to Yan'an, renamed the three years of diligent study, 21 years old, Ma Labs as a researcher at Academia Sinica and the political secretary .1942 academic year, he went with the social survey expert Wentian Ningxia Border Region, one year and a half, monasteries, known micro-renowned for from the abstract to the concrete. Remember: There is no investigation and insight, not to speak Ma.
than statement. The latter requires not only a deep understanding of Chinese society, but also moral courage and political wisdom, the so-called a series of fortuitous events brought this historical juncture. It was the eve of the Third Plenary Session Twelve, political experience, much longer than the Republic of the age, economic management qualifications, but also to adverse circumstances in the long Jiahuoyuren never enjoyed the broad trust, afraid of risks, not afraid of offending the old leadership, mixing in among the political forces, finally enable him to safely put forward to the central leaders of most moderates his subtle and profound style of political expression. Twenty years later, the first To Ma's The textual representation of the written resolution plenum and said the issue is too important, if you do not recognize this basic principle of our economic system and present a series of important economic policy, it is difficult theoretically clear. > Ma's style is to seize the historical opportunity to promote China's social evolution, tenacious, seeking succeed not seek fame, but do not send empty talk or a new phase is still said. in the legitimacy after 1988, Ma has proposed to end, the reform, that failure. This is the asymptotic inner logic of the reform, which requires the expression of sound, sharp mind, and indomitable fighting spirit. China's reform success, largely because the gradual emergence and establishment of such a political culture, gradually weakening of the previous stormy style political culture.
2007 11 7 on the morning of 9, the Beijing square on the cemetery, gathered hundreds of funeral came to Ma's relatives, friends, students, leaders and colleagues . Mahon salt as sea water, melting themselves quietly, imperceptibly, affecting generations of the Chinese reformers. In the years ahead, we will be more miss Ma, miss him a rare blend of the three mm sound kind of quality, sensitive, tenacious.
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